(#5117) 6 days until Russia starts the new offensive in its invasion of Ukraine

      The die is cast! The cat is out of the bag! However you want to exclaim it the Russians have been found out. Of course they would be because to mobilize a large offensive inside another country's territory requires many moving pieces. But even that isn't the whole story on the new Russian offensive. The kremlin has been talking about winning a major city before the 1 year anniversary of its illegal invasion of Ukraine. That would be in 19 days so if Russia is to capture a major Ukrainian city, Bakhmut, then they need to get going immediately. Which combined with the Russian pieces of war machine being moved into place tells us all we need for now.
     Sure there could be a feint by Russia to show force in one region while secretly building up a force in another region but with today's modern technology, spying capabilities, the chance of that is 0. So here comes the Russian offensive in the Bakhmut area. If there is one way to see the Russian strategy it is through brute force. So Russia will send in a massive amount of troops in order to capture a small area. Whatever the kremlin has to do to get to crow about taking a major Ukrainian city. The Ukrainians for their part are aware of this and have been fortifying their defensive positions for many weeks. Yet the sheer manpower Russia is willing to sacrifice in order to achieve their propaganda goal is daunting.
     One thing we should never lose sight of is that the Russian high command will easily sacrifice its troops for a victory. There is no clamoring at home in Russia for them to safeguard their men. They have been fed and believe the propaganda message of hero for all their young men who fall in Ukraine. So expect a mad rush by Russian troops in large numbers to try to overrun the Ukrainian defenses. We will see shortly how this plays out but if it fails the Russian army will be vulnerable to a counter attack that could end the last bit of Russian occupation in Ukraine. Hopefully the west and our weapons will be in place before the Russians come poring across their current positions into the Ukrainian jaws of death that awaits them.