Saturday, November 12, 2022

(#5032) Today will go a long way to determining Senate control

      As the last big bunch of mail in ballots needing to be added to the vote totals the likelihood of Democrat Catherine Cortez Casto overcoming the more than 800 vote deficit to her republican opponent today is extremely high. Not only overcoming it but distancing herself enough for the race to be called in her favor. We will see about the race being called in her favor but her going into a bit of a comfortable lead is logical. Almost all the votes remaining are coming from the two counties she is carrying. Plus they are mail in votes which historically favor Democratic candidates.
     I expect Senator Cortez Casto to be reelected and thus become the 50th Democratic senator. With her winning today the Senate will remain in Democratic control, regardless of what happens in the Georgia Senate special election runoff on December 6th. Their are now nearly 60,000 votes remaining to be added to the totals in Nevada and how many of them will be at the least well over 50,000. Provisional ballots and ballots that need to be "cured" will undoubtedly be eliminated by some small percentage but the vast bulk of the remaining ballots just need to be examined and counted. Instead of watching college football today for the most part I will also be watching this Senate race and the remaining House races.
     By holding the Senate as early as today we democrats are on track to keep Congress as well. There are about 31 House races to be decided and the bulk of them, which are very close now, will be decided by, you guessed it, early mail in votes. Which have been favoring Democrats by about a 2/3rds clip. When all is said and done and with my optimistic viewpoint that we Democrats could hold as many as at least 221 seats Nancy Pelosi could well remain Speaker of the House. Again, we will see but the logic is the same for the Nevada Senate race. We Democrats are big believers in science and logic so if the foundation for our understanding is mathematically and logically correct then today may well be a wonderful day for America and the world!

No comments: