If the republicans take the House there will be little that is accomplished in our federal government. With a stall in needed legislation on the horizon with republican control of the House the blame for it will fall on republicans who will hold up necessary legislation as blackmail so that they can tear down Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. No one will be happy about that and of course the culprit republicans will be exposed. Of course this scenario is worst case and yet it is stated as the republican intent even before the 2022 election.
The other factor here is that the Senate will be a bit of a hard task for democrats to hold after the 2024 election given normal circumstances. 23 of the 33 seats in the Senate up for election in 2024 will be democratic ones. In some states where the outcome is in real doubt. But again, the republicans, if they get enough seats in the coming days to reclaim the majority in the House, will through their obstruction, provide a salve for what could have been a rough battle in 2024. Instead of a tough democratic election in the Senate in 2024, the republicans will make it much more palatable for independents to vote for democrats in those tough senate races.
2024 is also a presidential election and will bring the full force of the democratic party out to vote. So with a possible 2 years of obstructing and generally nasty actions by House republicans, the idea that a blue wave election will be in effect for 2024 is more likely than not. Now I hope we hold the House this year by any margin and then we will be in an even better position for 2024 because legislation will pass that will be historic. But given the alternative we democrats will be in the drivers seat regardless of which way the House goes on January 3, 2023.
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