(#5226) The Ukrainian counter offensive has already begun

      Do not expect some large scale fully along the fighting front assault to be what the Ukrainian counter offensive looks like. I believe it will be a series of attacks that may end up being like a broom coming in to sweep the Russians out of Ukraine. Much like D-Day from WW2, an opening will be created followed by an onrush of troops and equipment. From that vantage point all directions into the Russian occupied Ukrainian territory are then available to be considered. Giving the Russians no chance to assimilate their remaining troops into an effective defense. Once a breach is gained then expect a massive assault that will likely put the Russians into a panic and start their chaotic rush back to their own borders and more.
     The Russian troops that are left after over 205,000 of them have been killed in Ukraine over the last 16 months will not hesitate to turn tail and run. They know that the Ukrainian troops are for real and are in no mood for mercy. This invasion by putin is over in the next little bit of time and no amount of strategy by Russia's murdering kremlin will change that. The estimation of Ukraine having over 400,000 combat ready troops for the counter offensive is at least what I expect them to have. They will be able to rout the Russian military everywhere in Ukraine despite fortifications Russia may believe will protect them. Those trenches, mines, and other obstacles the Russians are relying on won't keep the Ukrainians from overwhelming them anywhere along the front line.
     Russia is expected to have only about 200,000 troops spread out along an approximate 1200 mile long land border. You can see the weakness of Russia's defense is the totality of their border. Which should make Ukraine's decision where to attack much more easily. Russia does not have enough troops to withstand Ukraine anywhere along the front so when the push takes place the success rate of it is very high. Strategically Ukraine will try very hard to limit its own casualties while inflicting heavy casualties on the Russians. This will have a demoralizing effect as well and should trigger the retreat of Russian troops in large numbers. If Ukraine does this in just the right way they will lose very few troops and the end result will be that Russia is no longer in any territory of Ukraine.