Thursday, October 22, 2020

12 days left until the election (#4282)

      It sure seems to me that there are a lot of republicans voting for Joe Biden and very few democrats voting for trump. In my mind the blue wave was already going to overwhelm trump but if more republicans are joining it will be an overwhelming indeed. Nearly 45 million of us have already had our early ballots accumulated by election officials which is getting closer to the amount of votes either candidate in 2016 received. And we still have 12 days left of early voting. I am still confident that we will have between 150 and 170 million votes overall with the number, hopefully, closer to the 170 figure than the 150 figure. Either way the number would be at minimum 12 million more voters than in 2016.
     Over 231 million voters were eligible in 2016 and that number for 2020 is estimated by me at least to be closer to 250 million. If by fortune the number of voters this time is at 170 million then the percentage of voters would break all records with a 68% participation rate. Now that may sound foolish of me to expect that which is why I expect about a 60% to 65% participation rate. So likely about 160 million of us will vote this time. Which is about a 64% participation rate. Even at that rate it sounds ambitious but since we have been voting like crazy these last couple of years because of our disdain of trump it isn't to me wholly unexpected.
     The voter turnout rate in 2016 was 53.1%. with 138 million of us casting a ballot. That was probably the worst I remember in many cycles being that low. In 2018 we reversed and started turning out in droves. Since then we have not backed off our desire to vote like nothing else matters. So getting to a 64% participation rate with 160 million of us voting out of approximately 250 registered voters would be historic yet not unexpected by me. Again I think we will even increase voter participation above 160 million but that would even surprise me a bit. Yet the stakes are so high in this election and the thought that we could lose should scare every eligible voter to their core and motivate them to vote at all costs.

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