Tuesday, August 4, 2020

91 days left until the election (#4203)

     We are down to 13 weeks left until the election. While I was half awake earlier this morning before I got out of bed I was thinking about how many minutes and hours were left until the election. To many for both right now to add to the countdown but soon at least with the hours after they get below 1000 I will start mentioning them. By the way, I never use an alarm clock anymore to wake up as I can never sleep more than 3 or 4 hours at a time at the most and after I wake from a 3 or 4 hour sleep I never get much more than an hour after that.
     But 13 weeks left in the election is significant in that we are now within the 3 month window. I want to talk about the presidential approval polls for a minute though. For the most part the polls have been well consistent and under 45 percent for just about all of trump's appointed presidency. He is now at about 41-42 percent and that may well come up more to his normal 45 percent by the time of the election. That would still put him down 10 percentage points from his disapproval numbers. I mentioned the word consistent a few sentences back and the reason for that is because trump started out at just under a 48% approval rating but quickly went down to his now "consistent" 41-42 percent approval rating.
     He has never been above a 50% approval rating during his entire presidency, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/. Which if he did would put him in a position to win a second term. But where his numbers are now and where they historically have been foretell an ominous tale of little to no comfort for him. If he cannot get his approval numbers up to at least 48% his chances of being appointed to a second term are nonexistent. Realistically I expect him to come back up to around 45% but not above and if anything he may well stay at the lower end of 40%. In my logic he shouldn't even be polling in the 30 percentile range but I am often disappointed with the American electorate. Especially after he has allowed so many Americans to die unnecessarily of Covid-19 and destroyed our economy along the way.

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