Saturday, June 22, 2024

(#5620) I can sense the desperation of Russia and so can Ukraine

      The noises coming from Russia are not ones that instill confidence for their people. Instead it is desperation that is being influenced, not confidence. When putin is talking about defensive measures instead of offensive ones you know the invasion he started is flailing. More than half a million of his countrymen have perished in Ukraine and many more are to follow over the next months. Not that this invasion is going to last months since other losses may trigger some movement within Russian society that could shake up the status quo. I know I mention this from time to time but it is still human nature to feel that a line will be crossed where no more means no more.
     We are not there yet it seems but the losses in personnel cannot continue at the rate of a 1000 and more a day without Russia being upended by the sheer loss of Russian life. The military equipment loss is another key factor because having armaments to attack Ukraine is necessary but now depleted so significantly that using much more of what is left may end up completely leaving Russia with a skeletal mechanized option. Russia is quickly heading toward the point of no return so if they don't find a way to overcome Ukraine, which is very unlikely, they will be facing their worst case scenario, defeat! Or they may decide that an unimaginable option is their only hope.
     I do not think they have that option as the west is primed for a response that will make Russia uninhabitable for generations if they even think of pushing some button to force a response. Russia overplayed their hand and now must face the reality of it. They will lose in Ukraine and have to withdraw from occupied territories they had hoped to annex. Ukraine on the other hand will take back its lands from Russia and then fortify their 1000 or so mile border with Russia. The demise of the brutal Russian ambition is a good thing for peace in the world and will also give Eastern Europe and Asia a chance to find their own identities without Russia and tyrant putin trying to force them into something they are not.

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