116 days left until the election (#4178)

     I wouldn't say that I am confident but I will say that I like the trends I am seeing in the polling. Now before you get all up in my grill about how the polling failed us back in 2016, just remember that the polling was adjusted after that election and has since been damn near right on since. In 2017, the state election in Virginia as an example. A blue wave hit that voting and was in line with the polling. In 2018, the polling showed that we democrats were going to win back the House and not only did we do that we won comfortably. As well in many states we bolstered our presence in state offices by around 400 seats. 
     So if anything the recent polling has either been on the mark or under counting our blue wave enthusiasm. As time has moved on from the 2018 election the polling has been consistent throughout. For nearly the last 2 years all indicators are that we democrats have not waned in our blue wave momentum. But polling only gets you so far as to understanding what is happening in America. Another key factor is voter turnout. Which since trump was appointed president by the electoral college, has been increased significantly. In 2016 only about 53.1% of eligible voters bothered to vote. So 46.9% abdicated their duty to participate in our election, which was determinative in why we now have the cad trump.
     In all elections since the 2016 general election the vast majority of races run have shown dramatically increased democratic voter participation. Such that the going odds for what the turnout in the 2020 general election are looking like between 65-70% turnout. If we get those numbers which at this point seems reasonable even with Covid-19 doing its worst, the blue wave that built up in 2017 will grow to a blue tsunami and very few republicans up for reelection this cycle will survive. Which is why I feel better about this coming election even though I know anything can happen. What I know for sure though and am confident about is that if we democrats keep voting like we have been these last 3 years the era of divisive republican politics will come to an end.